UPDATED! See this article instead.<——
By Darren Johnson
Campus News
I write about sports and I write about music and TV. So I thought I’d combine all of these into one column — I will use my handicapping skills to give Vegas-style odds for each remaining “American Idol” contestant.
This year, I’ve been rather surprised as to how good the “AI” reboot has been. Perhaps it’s the quality of the judges — Lionel Richie, Katy Perry and Luke Bryan — who have picked the amateur talent that remains.
The show is down to the final 10, and the American public now gets to vote for who survives each week, but the judges can influence that vote through their praise, or lack thereof, of the performers. As well, they get to “save” a certain number of contestants each week who did not win the popular vote.
In formulating these odds, I not only use my knowledge of music and TV and the history of this show, I also look at their Instagram followings. Instagram users are younger and the type who vote in these contests.
For those who don’t understand how betting odds work, something like 3:1 would mean if you bet $1, you’d win $3, etc. BTW, this is for “entertainment purposes only,” my legal team insists I add.
Anyway, here goes my odds (their Instagram pages are linked/follower numbers listed):
Maddie Poppe (59k followers), 3:1. I’ve been watching “AI” since Year 1 and know the recipe for success. This singer makes great song choices and really understands music. She has a pop-country thing, which also seems to work on this show. She has girl-next-door looks, and is humble, which voters appreciate. She also has a unique falsetto she transitions into. I don’t see her as inferior to “AI’s” biggest winners, Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson, and is that same all-purpose style of performer. Despite a weaker social media presence than most other remaining contestants, I can see her winning.
Ada Vox (49k followers), 4:1. This performer puts on show-stopping, over-the-top performances. But will it be too much? Unlike Poppe, there’s not much subtly there. Still, at 4:1, Vox is a near-favorite. ADD (4/29): ELIMINATED! I believe the public just felt Vox was not much more than a diva. The novelty wore off
Jurnee (46k followers), 5:1. She didn’t get the popular vote last week and had to be saved by the judges. A smooth professional-level stylist, she may come off as too cool for school. This show is part popularity contest, after all. But she is just 18 — lots of room for adjustment in the weeks ahead.
Cade Foehner (100k followers), 7:1. A rocker, he definitely reminds me of Jim Morrison. But the problem is, “AI” has themed weeks — this coming week is based on Disney music. This hurts rock-style performers. Chris Daughtry, a past rocking “AI” contestant with an even better voice, just placed 4th on the show in its fifth season — though, the good news is, dear 100,000 Cade fans, Daughtry went on to sell 8 million albums.
Catie Turner (166k followers), 10:1. While she has an incredible voice and is a goofy fan favorite, she did have a poor performance two weeks ago, where she decided to dance and hop around on stage a la “Kidz Bop.” She learned from that and has been more restrained of late. But, for a Vegas bettor, she’s too unpredictable to bank on.
Caleb Lee Hutchinson (85k followers), 15:1. A deep-voiced country singer who probably will fall down a peg during specialty themed weeks. Not multi-dimensional enough to win what, in essence, is a variety show.
Gabby Barrett (144k followers), 25:1. For bettors who like longshots, this wager may end up a windfall. She has shown glimpses of the talent of the more polished singers noted above, but she’s only 18 and can improve week by week. Lots of Instagram followers help.
Michael J. Woodard (42k followers), 35:1. Talented, yes, and he did get plenty of popular votes last week. But is he as marketable as some of the other performers on this list? Could you picture him selling out MetLife Stadium?
Michelle Sussett (90k followers), 75:1. I was surprised the judges saved her last week. The depth just isn’t there. ADD (4/29): ELIMINATED! As predicted.
Dennis Lorenzo (23k followers), 100:1. At 27, this performer is not a fan favorite. The judges saved him with their last vote last week. He seems to be a bit behind on style, wearing the unbent baseball cap with the label still on it, a fad that is long over. Poor social media following. Save your money. ADD (4/29): ELIMINATED! Too bad, because his performance tonight was good. Unfortunately, he went last, so didn’t benefit from early voting.
And that’s that. If you are a fan of one of the longshots, I apology for any criticism that may offend you. I’m merely speaking from a degenerate bettor’s perspective. Hey, they’re all better than me. Good luck, all!
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