By Darren Johnson
Campus News
I’ve been writing these “Vegas Odds” pieces based on a compelling recent season of “American Idol.” It’s a reboot season, the first time on ABC, and has overall been well-done, with truly celebrity judges (Lionel Richie, Katy Perry and Luke Bryan) who know what they are talking about. The old Fox show kind of petered out, with tired, inarticulate judges offering no real opinions. As for me, I’m a decent statistician and like gambling, so feel I’m the best person in American to create these odds. So far, I’ve been deadly accurate. Last week, I predicted exactly who would remain. See my previous odds here.
In any case, the finale is May 20-21 and three contestants are left. I am unsure if they will vote out one on the Sunday show, and then have two remaining for Monday. If that is the case, then one of the two women remaining will likely win. Why? Well, if the vote is merely one of three, the two women will split the vote and the guy will take the title. But, if the true finale is between one of each gender, the women in this case are more versatile and likely can win one-on-one.
The reason why I’m writing this piece so late in the week is, I was on a cruise ship. Watching the house troupe sing and dance to various genres — country, swing, pop — made me question whether any of these contestants are as good as mere cruise ship entertainers? I mean, I’ve been on five cruises and have seen countless other musicals, and, the fact is, there are lots of cute people out there who can sing well. So why are these three “AI” contestants so special?
Thus, I am going to stick with my original pick — Maddie Poppe will win it all. She can do more than your typical singer — she can play multiple instruments and write original music and is smart enough to understand the lyrics of the songs she sings, thus she can emote properly. The two people voted out last week — Michael J. Woodward and Cade Foehner — didn’t really convey that they understood the meaning of the songs that they were singing.
Here’s what will happen: Sunday, Gabby Barrett will be voted out. That will leave Poppe and Caleb Lee Hutchinson. Monday, Poppe will win narrowly.
My final odds:
Maddie Poppe (153k Instagram followers, an increase of 94k over the past three weeks), 2:1. I don’t imagine Poppe is as popular as the other finalists, but she’s been able to survive thus far based on the people at home who vote based on artistic integrity. She has a lot of tools in the shed and could have a nice career ahead of her, similar to a Colbie Caillat. I am thinking Poppe may pull out a seminal performance on Sunday that edges her past Barrett.
Caleb Lee Hutchinson (167k, 82k increase), 5:2. He did shine last week, which was devoted to the country music stylings of Carrie Underwood, but the finals will require a fuller performance, and Hutchinson is more in the Johnny Cash mode — could you imagine Johnny Cash winning “American Idol?” I think some singers are too unique to win such a mainstream contest.
Gabby Barrett (275k, 128k increase), 3:1. She is clearly more popular than the other two contestants and resembles a traditional pop star, like a Britney Spears. And, at only 18, there’s a lot of potential there. But, as a Vegas bookmaker, I have to predict she may flub due to her lack of relative experience, and can’t put her in the top two. Apologies to her fan base, but we’re talking money here.
Well, that’s that. My Vegas odds are complete for this show. If you’d like to hire me to create odds for something else, let me know!
Happy viewing!
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