By Darren Johnson
Campus News
Last week, Week 1, while I lost money on the games I actually bet, I did go 9-7 overall in my picks against the spread. They say a football bettor only needs to hit 54% to break even, considering the vig, so I’m not too disappointed with my picks. Week 1, along with Week 17, are the two hardest weeks to pick because there are so many unknowns.
(Want to see if you can beat me? Join our pool at https://cccnews.info/football. I play under “Campus News.”)
Week 2 has some opportunities. Here are my thoughts on picking for this week (home teams in CAPS):
CAROLINA -6.5 over Tampa Bay. I wouldn’t bet money on this one. Too many variables. But I’m confident that the Panthers, at home, are a touchdown better than the Bucs. The former may be an eventual playoff team, while the latter is more of a middling team.
Arizona +13.5 over BALTIMORE. Again, this would be a ridiculous game to put money on, but is Arizona really two touchdowns worse that the Ravens? Yes, Baltimore crushed the Browns last week, and Arizona tied Detroit, but I feel the Browns are wildly overrated while Detroit isn’t horrible. Take the points.
NY GIANTS +2.5 over Buffalo. The Bills get to visit MetLife again (they lucked into a win against the Jets there in Week 1). While the Giants lost at the Cowboys, the G-men had some glimmers of decent play and, at home, should cover over the Bills, who, for most of the game against the Jets, looked horrible.
Dallas -4.5 over WASHINGTON. I feel this spread is a bit low, but don’t feel confident enough to bet this one. The Cowboys often disappoint.
Indianapolis +3.5 over TENNESSEE. The Colts may be a bit underrated, even considering the retirement of Andrew Luck.
HOUSTON -9.5 over Jacksonville. A crazy spread. Vegas bookmakers are so smart. Don’t touch this one.
LA Chargers -2.5 over DETROIT. I gave the Lions some props above, but the Chargers are a potential playoff team. They may run over the Lions in the Motor City.
GREEN BAY -2.5 over Minnesota. These teams may have equal talent, but the Packers played last Thursday, so will have had 10 days to rest, and they are at home.
New England -18.5 over MIAMI. You rarely will see a spread this big in the NFL. I wouldn’t touch it.
CINCINNATI -1.5 over San Francisco. These teams may have equal talent, but the Bengals are at home and coming off a loss. They need a win more.
Seattle +3.5 over PITTSBURGH. The Steelers simply looked awful losing 33-3 to the Patriots in Week 1. Their receiving corps just couldn’t get open, and Ben Roethlisberger didn’t seem inspired. The team kicking a field goal when they needed a touchdown says it all. Seattle, meanwhile, could be a Super Bowl team. Yes, they are away, but they are dynamic. I may bet the money line with them for a larger payout.
OAKLAND +9.5 over Kansas City. I love getting that many points at home for a team that not only won last week, but also has something to prove.
Chicago +1.5 over DENVER. While the Bears lost in Week 1 against the Packers in a defensive battle, the Broncos are not the Packers. Look for the Bears to break out.
LA RAMS -3.5 over New Orleans. This game could really go either way. The Rams get home-team bonus spread. I’m not touching it.
Philadelphia -1.5 over ATLANTA. I understand why this point spread is so low. People are expecting the Falcons to rebound after a disappointing Week 1. But the Eagles came on strong at the end of their game, and that momentum should carry into Week 2.
NY JETS +2.5 over Cleveland. I was burned by the Jets last week. Who knew they had signed the worst field goal kicker ever? That said, I feel the Browns are wildly overrated. The Jets are home and it’s Monday night. I will give them another shot. Worth a small bet, and then gloating as the Browns implode.
And those are my picks for Week 2. See my story about legally betting the games last week. And try to beat me at https://cccnews.info/football.
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