UPDATE (5/6): It looks like Jurnee and Catie Turner were voted out. HERE ARE THE UPDATED VEGAS ODDS<——
By Darren Johnson
Campus News
Last week, I created Vegas odds for the Top 10 of “American Idol,” and the article was a big hit, getting thousands of views! With all of those views, I made approximately 7 cents off of the Google Ads you can see to the right! I’m rich! Who needs singing talent to make mondo moolah?
Turns out, I am a pretty good TV talent show bookmaker, and my thoughts from last week mostly came to fruition. One mistake I made was that I thought the judges would be able to keep “saving” contestants — turns out, during Sunday’s show, where three were eliminated live, the judges had little say. The show felt a bit rushed overall, especially at the end.
I was surprised “AI” is going with this real-time route. Why?
- The format seems to penalize those who perform toward the end of the show. For example, Dennis Lorenzo actually did a pretty good job last night, but was the show’s anchor and ended up cut. People really had to base their votes on how he did last week, which wasn’t as good.
- People on the West Coast had to watch the show at 5 p.m. This may favor East Coast acts, who get hometown votes.
- The whole voting system seems like it can be technologically corrupted (Russian bots?). In 2007, popular SiriusXM radio personality Howard Stern of “The Howard Stern Show” helped influence the vote by encouraging his listeners to vote for off-key Sanjaya as a gag. At least if “AI” had a day to stew over the results, they could fix any inconsistencies.
- Also, if voters had an extra day to think about their votes, perhaps they could review the acts they missed via YouTube.
Either way, I made good calls with my previous article. Last night’s show not only knocked off Lorenzo, who I had pegged at 100:1, but also Michelle Sussett, who I had as the second longest longshot at 75:1. I was a bit wrong on Ada Vox , who I had at only 4:1, but I did muse that the public may tire of this diva.
In any case, with the above knowledge, I have adjusted my odds for this coming Sunday. It’s Prince Week, so that should help performers who can channel the Purple One. Here goes:
Cade Foehner (126k Instagram followers, increase of 26k since last week), 7:2. This rocker survived Disney Week and is seeing a decent increase in his social media following, so I’m making him the new favorite. I hope he does a rocking electric guitar number, like “Let’s Go Crazy!”
Maddie Poppe (79k followers, increase of 20k), 4:1. I’m moving the odds from 3:1 to 4:1 on her as she seems to be the most mainstream, but, at the same time, her song choice and the little vignette last night with Idena Menzel where it was said Poppe didn’t have much range didn’t help. “Bear Necessities” is an antiquated song that doesn’t seem that hard to sing, and people hate the ukulele. She may have been better off with a modern Princess song. This week will be a Prince song. Maybe “Nothing Compares 2 U?”
Jurnee (60k followers, increase of 14k), 7:1. She only had a modest increase in social media following in the past week, but she did take my advice and came off as friendlier and more accessible last night. She may be more multi-faceted than Foehner, but will need to work on her persona further to win more popular votes. Please don’t sing “Raspberry Beret!”
Caleb Lee Hutchinson (104k followers, increase of 19k), 9:1. Likeable, though a bit of a one-note performer. Still, his odds improve after a solid Disney Week showing, though he is quite the opposite of Prince. Maybe he can cheat and do the deep-voiced Tom Jones song, which Prince remade: “Kiss.”
Gabby Barrett (174k followers, increase of 30k), 11:1. From a marketing perspective, Barrett may end up becoming the biggest star in this bunch. But is her time now, at just 18? Still, I move her to from 25:1 to 11:1 as she continues to improve. She shows the greatest social media growth of this field, as well. Maybe she should sing a smooth song like “Diamonds and Pearls.”
Catie Turner (189k followers, increase of 23k), 15:1. The spurning of Ada Vox last night by those who vote shows me that they may tire of “novelty” acts. This woman can sing as well as anyone, but she also is prone to antics. Perhaps she’s going to party like it’s “1999.”
Michael J. Woodard (56k followers, increase of 14k), 25:1. Somehow, this performer keeps staying alive and getting the popular vote. Still, I wouldn’t bet the house on his overall chances. He can help himself by singing “Little Red Corvette.” It’s an adult song that would show this guy is serious, if he can pull it off.
Those are my odds for now. They are sure to change after Sunday’s show. Stay tuned. Comment below.
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